Hong Kong’s exports have become increasingly buoyant this year, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, driven by widespread demand for high-tech components and products.
A sustained appetite for AI has provided a significant boost to re-exports in the city, driving sales of high-performance chips and other advanced hardware to the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN production bases and major developed markets.
In response to the latest AI-powered tech cycle, alongside a better-than-expected trading performance overall, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has upgraded its 2026 export growth forecast for the SAR to more than 20%.
Electronics is a cornerstone of Hong Kong’s trade, accounting for more than 70% of total exports by value.
The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index, a quarterly survey of 500 traders, also supports a more upbeat outlook after reflecting a gloomier mood at the start of the year.
Two key indicators – the Current Performance Index and the Expectation Index – have both rebounded into positive territory, offsetting earlier concerns about the global economy and trading environment.
Fieldwork for the latest survey, covering Q2, took place from 4 to 22 May.
“Overall, the outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has improved, with the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remaining the most promising,” noted HKTDC’s Director of Research, Bruce Pang.
“Sentiment towards the US market has also strengthened following the Xi-Trump meeting in mid‑May and recent trade policy developments,” Mr Pang added.
“At present, export momentum is expected to remain solid, although geopolitical developments and risks to global demand may continue to create uncertainties.”
Pricing pressures
A supply crunch for semiconductors has pushed up prices for memory chips and advanced processors, further amplifying export values. This helped lift Hong Kong’s export growth from January to May to more than 36% year-on-year.
This momentum is unlikely to last once production capacity expands and pricing pressures ease. Nonetheless, underlying demand should stay resilient, with Hong Kong continuing to facilitate the flow of electronic parts and semi-manufactured goods across Asian supply chains and into global markets.
In addition to electronics, the city’s traders were also more optimistic about exports in two other key sectors, timepieces and toys.
The corresponding readings for three other sectors covered by the Export Confidence Index – clothing, equipment and materials, and jewellery – retreated, however, presenting a more nuanced picture.
Looking ahead, future trade trajectories are hard to predict, reflecting geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, as well as corresponding volatility in energy prices.
At the same time, policy trends – including protectionism, evolving US trade measures and possible shifts among major trading partners – also remain uncertain.
HKTDC Research has published its mid-year export review and outlook here.
A more in-depth review of the latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index can be found here.