A survey conducted by Standard Chartered and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has revealed business sentiment among companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) remained steady in the final quarter (Q4) of calendar year 2025.
The “current performance” index for business activity eased to 50.3 in Q4 from 54.7 in the previous quarter, while the “expectations” index declined to 51 from 55.7. Despite the pullback, both indices stayed above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that GBA businesses continued to hold a broadly positive outlook.
The retreat reflected a slackening in business momentum following an earlier surge in activity, when many companies front-loaded orders to avoid tariffs.
More cautious investment, financing and capacity utilisation also contributed to the softening, as firms remained vigilant amid ongoing external uncertainties.
In terms of individual GBA city assessments, Hong Kong’s readings were well above the survey average. This confirmed that the city’s economic rebound remained firmly on track at year-end, with its “current performance” sub-index up 5.7 points to 57.9 and its “expectations” sub-index rising 1.8 points to 55.4. Overall, the continued recovery in growth momentum was seen as being driven by the city’s professional services and retail/wholesale sectors.
HKTDC Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu said: “Following the extension of the trade truce between the United States and China, business sentiment in Hong Kong continued to improve, allowing the city to outperform its peer cities across the GBA. This recovery momentum in Hong Kong is expected to remain intact, supported by buoyant business activities and solid performance of the professional services sector.”
Enterprises keen to enter Middle East, survey finds
The study also gauged GBA companies’ interest in expanding business in the Middle East. Over half of the respondents (54.8%) expressed active interest in expanding into the Middle East, with the UAE (53.9%) and Saudi Arabia (53.2%) cited as their top two priority markets.
Despite widespread optimism about emerging opportunities in the Middle East, many GBA businesses also highlighted challenges. The most frequently identified concerns were a “lack of understanding of local laws and regulations” (50.4%), an “opaque local regulatory environment and restrictions on foreign investment” (43.1%) and “cultural and business differences” (42%)
To address these challenges, 99.2% of respondents saw Hong Kong’s world‑class professional services as instrumental to their Middle East expansion plans, particularly in helping businesses navigate complex local regulatory and compliance requirements.
Noting the strong appeal of Hong Kong’s professional services for companies navigating Middle Eastern regulations and cultural differences, Standard Chartered Economist Hunter Chan said: “With its strengths in professional services, Hong Kong can further leverage its unique position as a superconnector, serving as a springboard for enterprises seeking to expand into overseas markets.”
The Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Index is a forward-looking quarterly survey gauging business sentiment across cities and industries in the GBA.
One thousand companies in the GBA region are surveyed on their overall operations, business environment and expansion plans. Industries surveyed include manufacturing & trading, retail & wholesale, financial services, professional services and innovation & technology.