TRADE WAR

02 November 2018

While the North American free trade area will remain essentially intact under the new USMCA deal that will replace the 24-year-old NAFTA, products will generally face more demanding compliance requirements for duty-free treatment. To cope with the more stringent origin rules and limit on the use of foreign components, Hong Kong businesses should ensure they are aware of the new deal’s key changes and impacts on their exports. More

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Surviving the Sino-US Trade Dispute: Recommended Strategies

06 July 2018

With the US ramping up trade tensions not just with mainland China, long seen as its prime adversary, but also with many of its closest allies, the export environment has seldom seemed so forbidding. For concerned Hong Kong businesses, however, there are a wide range of customs strategies, international regulations and export options that should allow them to ride out this particular storm. More

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Likely Developments in Sino-US Trade Relations in the Midterm Elections Year: Potential Backlash to US Trade Remedy Actions

09 March 2018

Tensions between the US and mainland China reached a new high recently. While Trump readies a full trade arsenal, backlash to US trade remedy actions could range from targeted retaliatory actions to frustrating imports of a range of US products and services, such as beef, civilian aircraft, agricultural products, semiconductors and tourism, to a targeted reduction in US Treasury bond holdings. More

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Sino-Japan tensions and why the economics matter to Hong Kong

05 October 2012

China-Japan relations have deteriorated in the wake of Japan’s supposed nationalisation of some of the disputed Diaoyu Islands. China and Japan are integral partners of the regional and global supply chains, together accounting for about 15% of global trade. About 10% of their bilateral trade (US$39 billion) is handled by Hong Kong. It makes a great deal of economic sense to avoid a China-Japan trade war, which would have global implications. More

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How we look at the current world economic crisis from past experience

15 December 2011

A renewed downturn in the global economy, alongside the attendant sluggishness in overseas demand, will certainly depress the expansion of Hong Kong exports. Our forecast is for Hong Kong’s total exports to increase by 1% in value but fall by 3% in volume. While re-exports, which account for the bulk of Hong Kong’s exports, are also expected to grow by 1% in value yet drop by 3% in volume, domestic exports are likely to contract by 15% in nominal terms and 19% in real terms. More

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