EMERGING ECONOMIES

2020 Mid-Year Export Review: Pandemic and Protectionism Combine to Trigger Double-Digit Decline

16 June 2020

Hong Kong’s export outlook has taken a turn for the worse as the global trade environment has deteriorated sharply amid the unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic, which has seriously disrupted global supply chains and severely dampened worldwide demand. In view of the threats of a sharply distressed global economy and ongoing trade protectionism, HKTDC Research has lowered its 2020 export growth forecast to -10% from -2% amid substantial downside risk. More

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Hong Kong Export Outlook For 2020: Strong Downside Risks as Protectionism Proliferates and the Global Economy Slows

18 December 2019

Despite the more accommodating monetary conditions prevailing in the major economies and intermittent signs of easing Sino-US trade tension, the spread of protectionism into broader economic and geopolitical arenas suggest there will be no quick fix in the Sino-US dispute, nor in a number of other trade-related confrontations. Against this backdrop, HKTDC Research forecasts that the value of Hong Kong’s exports will decline by 2% in 2020. More

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2019 Export Forecast Review: Heightened Trade Tensions and Challenging Operating Environment Will See Hong Kong Exports Drop 4% in 2019

23 September 2019

Amid lingering China-US trade tensions, softening global economic growth and a challenging operating environment, Hong Kong exports continue to lose momentum and are likely to suffer a full-year decline in 2019. The latest HKTDC Export Index plunged to 27.4, which has reached a decade-low level. Against this backdrop, HKTDC Research has revised its 2019 export growth forecast significantly downward from 2% in June to -4%. More

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Hong Kong Export Outlook for 2019: Cautiously Optimistic Amid Lingering Trade Tensions

13 December 2018

The global economy may encounter increasing uncertainties and slower growth in the year to come. While the world’s cyclical economic recovery may warrant an optimistic outlook over the short-term, there is also an awareness that rising trade protectionism and geopolitical friction may undermining long-term growth. According to the HKTDC Export Index, 51% of exporters expect their sales to increase or remain unchanged over the coming year. More

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Hong Kong Export Outlook for 2018: Continued World Recovery Supports a Favourable Environment for Exports

18 December 2017

Although the world economy may experience some challenges in the coming year, its recovery is expected to stay on course. The HKTDC Export Index survey indicated that the underlying positive export trend for 2017 looks set to continue into 2018, with 76% of the exporters surveyed saying that they expected their level of sales to increase or remain unchanged over the coming year. More

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How we look at the current world economic crisis from past experience

15 December 2011

A renewed downturn in the global economy, alongside the attendant sluggishness in overseas demand, will certainly depress the expansion of Hong Kong exports. Our forecast is for Hong Kong’s total exports to increase by 1% in value but fall by 3% in volume. While re-exports, which account for the bulk of Hong Kong’s exports, are also expected to grow by 1% in value yet drop by 3% in volume, domestic exports are likely to contract by 15% in nominal terms and 19% in real terms. More