Companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) remained upbeat during the early rounds of US tariff hikes, according to a Q1 survey of market sentiment.
The latest Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Index (GBAI), jointly published yesterday by Standard Chartered and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), showed a broad-based improvement in both business activity and outlook during the first quarter of the year.
The survey was conducted before the US unveiled widespread reciprocal tariff increases in April.
The latest GBAI survey sampled views in February and March, a time when a market rally fuelled by the success of DeepSeek, together with the prospect of more stimulus measures in Mainland China, helped offset initial tariff concerns and uncertainties.
The next survey, which will run in May and June, should provide more clarity on GBA business readiness to live with high tariffs, noted Kelvin Lau, Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist for Greater China and North Asia.
Government policies could help shape opinions too.
“We expect that both monetary and fiscal polices on the mainland will stay supportive,” Mr Lau said. “Meanwhile, Hong Kong would need to ramp up short-term support to SMEs and continue to diversity its trade to facilitate more non-US trade corridors.”
The GBAI is based on a survey of more than 1,000 companies across Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. These businesses operate in five main sectors: manufacturing and trading; retail and wholesale; financial services; professional services; and innovation and technology.
In the GBAI’s latest poll, 41% of survey respondents saw a positive impact from new policies to increase household spending. At the same time, 38% expected to benefit from an expanded consumer goods trade-in program, which partially subsidises home appliance upgrades and purchases.
Boosting domestic demand is a major priority for China’s Government, noted Wing Chu, Principal Economist (Greater China Research Team) at HKTDC. This opens up opportunities for companies in the GBA.
“More than 50% of respondents have indicated that they are either already well positioned to tap into the mainland consumer market or are currently expanding or planning to expand their operations to do so,” he said.
“Additional supportive measures from the Government could further bolster their businesses,” he added.
The GBAI’s index of company performance rose from 50.7 in Q4 2025 to 53.5 in Q1 2025 – its highest level in nine months. The expectations index climbed from 52.9 in Q4 2024 to 54.3 in Q1 2025.
Among the major GBA cities, Hong Kong extended its rising current performance streak to four straight quarters, registering a 53.5 score in Q1 2025, up from 48.7 in Q4 2024.
Hong Kong’s expectations index also jumped up, from 50.8 in Q4 2024 to 56.9 in Q1 2025, placing it second among GBA cities behind Guangzhou.
