Hong Kong exporters started 2026 on a more cautious note ahead of the conflict in the Middle East, according to a survey of the city’s traders conducted by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC).
The HKTDC 1Q26 Export Confidence Index, released yesterday, showed moderate declines in business sentiment among Hong Kong exporters for Q1 and Q2, reflecting continued uncertainty about the global economy and trading environment.
Nonetheless, the mood in some key sectors, including jewellery and clothing, was more upbeat since Q4, while cost pressures showed signs of stabilising and trade value expectations remained steady, HKTDC’s research revealed.
Optimism among jewellery exporters experienced a notable rally on the back of robust sales and sizeable new orders, while sentiment in the clothing sector also strengthened considerably.
Electronics exporters were less bullish, however, signalling disruptions over the Chinese New Year period.
The survey fieldwork for the latest Export Confidence Index, sampling more than 500 Hong Kong traders across six major sectors, was carried out in January and February, before the onset of heightened tensions in the Middle East.
“The outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has moderated somewhat, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, largely on account of ongoing geopolitical developments,” remarked Bruce Pang, HKTDC Director of Research.
Nonetheless, Mr Pang noted that fundamental demand appears resilient over the longer term, especially for electronics and other consumer sectors.
“Hong Kong’s trade prospects should stay positive, yet remain cautious, pending the further easing of global geopolitical conflicts.”
Market diversification
As part of the same survey, HKTDC Research also conducted a thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters’ cross-border e‑commerce business.
The findings showed that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross‑border e‑commerce, while a further 20% plan to adopt this sales channel within the coming year.
Among companies already active in international e-commerce, the Chinese Mainland ranked as the leading online sales destination (24%), followed by the EU and the UK (17%), Canada and the US (15%), and the ASEAN bloc (14%).
“Market diversification remains a key strategy for Hong Kong traders to mitigate risks,” commented Kenneth Lee, Head of HKTDC Research’s Special Project and Business Advisory section.
“At the same time, more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability amid an uncertain external environment,” Mr Lee added.
The HKTDC’s Export Confidence Index was launched in the first quarter of 2024 to provide a comprehensive snapshot of Hong Kong exporter sentiment. The quarterly survey is a composite of five sub‑indices: Sales and New Orders, Trade Value, Cost, Procurement and Inventory.
A more detailed review of the findings for Q1 is available here.