The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) expects Hong Kong’s merchandise exports to grow 8-9% in 2026, based on robust demand for AI-related electronics products. This outlook follows a better-than-anticipated performance this year, with exports rising 13.8% (year-on-year) in the first 10 months according to the Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook.
Findings from the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 reveal the majority of exporters (53.2%) see rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods will be the key factor boosting their business in 2026. This outcome is particularly significant given that electronics account for more than 70% of Hong Kong’s total export value.
Announcing the projections, Director of HKTDC Research Irina Fan said: “2026 should be a year of greater clarity on global trade. With the Chinese Mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November – some four months after many other nations had struck their own deals with the Trump administration – US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest 2026 concerns.”
Ms Fan acknowledged that uncertainties remain, stemming from varying tariff levels across countries and regions. These disparities are expected to prompt business leaders to reorganise operations to optimise cost advantages.
Meanwhile, two key measures of the Export Confidence Index 4Q25—the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9)—have both remained above the 50-point watershed, signalling confidence in continued export growth.
Commenting on the findings, Head of the HKTDC Research’s Special Project and Business Advisory Section Kenneth Lee said: “When it comes to expansion plans over the next two-year period, Asia remains very much in focus. For 42% of respondents, the Chinese Mainland is the highest priority market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%). Across almost every industry, exporters saw scaling up activities on the Chinese Mainland as their priority.”
Positive sentiment towards major markets and key industry sectors
According to the Market Expectation Sub-Index, the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and the ASEAN bloc (57.0) continued to be viewed as markets with strong growth potential. In contrast, sentiment towards the US has weakened—down 1.4 to 38.0—as ongoing trade uncertainties unsettle Hong Kong exporters.
Turning to individual industries, several sectors are projecting expansion in the year ahead, as indicated by index readings above the 50-point threshold. Topping the list is Jewellery (54.8), followed by Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6) and Equipment/Materials (51.1).
Despite the overall positive outlook, the survey highlights several challenges ahead. Chief among these are rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%) and declining overseas orders due to the broader economic slowdown (38.2%).